Attention all investors and market enthusiasts! Today's ASX 200 live coverage is here, and it's packed with insights you won't want to miss. But here's where it gets controversial: analysts are divided on Endeavour Group's future, with some predicting margin risks and others seeing potential for growth. And this is the part most people miss: the ASX 200 is up 0.30% in early trade, with resource stocks leading the charge. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of what's moving the markets today, Wednesday, January 14th.
Our live coverage will be updated periodically throughout the day, with a high volume of posts pre-market. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates, and don't hesitate to share your thoughts on how we can improve (https://surveys.hotjar.com/58578fe2-a49e-4faf-9594-3a926a54cd03). We'll be wrapping up around 2:00 pm AEST.
Analysts' Take on Endeavour Group
As of 11:05 am, analysts are weighing in on Endeavour Group's prospects. Macquarie has retained an Underperform rating, lowering its target price to $3.40, citing risks to margins as new management re-establishes market leadership. UBS and JPMorgan have also lowered their targets, expressing concerns about retail margins and promotional activities. However, Citi has upgraded Endeavour to Buy, citing improved execution under the new CEO and potential for structural headwinds to ease. This upgrade comes after a promotion-led downgrade, highlighting the complexities of valuing this company.
Top ASX 200 Gainers and Losers
At 10:15 am, Lovisa was the top gainer, up 7.69% to $30.90, possibly due to a Cannacord upgrade to Buy. Other notable gainers include Lynas Rare Earths, Monadelphous Group, and Neuren Pharmaceuticals. On the losing side, Block was down 3.16% to $100.99, followed by MA Financial Group and GQG Partners.
ASX 200 Higher, Resource Stocks Extend Gains
As of 10:07 am, the ASX 200 was up 0.30% in early trade, with Energy stocks continuing to bounce and Materials opening at a second straight record high. The index is trading at its highest level since November 11th, up 1.7% in the last six trading sessions.
Citi Upgrades Endeavour to Buy
At 9:48 am, Citi upgraded Endeavour to Buy, lifting its target price from $3.92 to $4.10. Analysts noted that Endeavour is trading at 16.8x FY26 EPS and holds over $1 billion in property. Potential performance improvements include greater supplier collaboration, innovation, and category expansion in Dan Murphy’s and BWS.
BlueScope to Return $438 Million to Shareholders
BlueScope announced at 9:36 am that it will return surplus cash to shareholders through a $1.00 per share unfranked special dividend, funded by asset sales and working capital releases. This dividend represents a yield of approximately 3.35% based on Tuesday's close.
Monadelphous Wins $300m Rio Tinto Maintenance Deal
Monadelphous Group secured a five-year maintenance services contract with Rio Tinto worth around $300 million at 9:20 am. This contract will support Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore operations, providing generalist mechanical and access support.
Brent Bounces to Near Three-Month High
Brent crude rose 1.8% overnight to US$65.45 a barrel, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to Iran's oil production. This bounce comes after five straight monthly declines, highlighting the complexities of global oil markets.
US Food Prices Accelerate at Fastest Pace Since 2022
Grocery prices rose 0.7% month-on-month in December, the fastest pace in three years, according to data released at 9:05 am. This increase highlights the disconnect between easing headline inflation and the cost pressures still facing households.
S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Growth to Slow
Consensus expects solid but moderating S&P 500 earnings growth in Q4, with tech carrying results. Analysts predict an 8.3% growth rate, up from 7.2% in late September but below Q3’s 13.5% growth.
Analysts Weigh Risks from Proposed US Credit Card Rate Cap
At 8:57 am, analysts expressed skepticism about Trump's proposed one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan all weighed in, citing potential challenges and disruptions to the credit card business model.
JPMorgan Earnings Mixed, Outlook Constructive
JPMorgan shares dipped 4.2% despite reporting a relatively positive Q4 result at 8:53 am. The company's management sees ongoing consumer resilience and healthy business conditions, but flagged geopolitics and sticky inflation as key macro overhangs.
US Inflation Cools Modestly, Fed Cut Odds Remain Low
December US CPI data released at 8:46 am showed a slight cooling in core inflation, but analysts expect the Fed to remain focused on the labour market. The data did little to alter expectations of a rate cut, with markets pricing just a 5% chance of a January rate cut.
As we navigate these complex markets, one question remains: will the ASX 200 continue its upward trajectory, or will global economic headwinds eventually take their toll? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and let's spark a discussion about the future of Australian equities.
